Nigeria and several countries across the globe are struggling to meet the 2025 milestones set under the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) End TB Strategy, with fresh data showing declines in tuberculosis (TB) deaths and infections that fall short of expectations.
According to The Guardian, the End TB Strategy, adopted by the World Health Assembly in 2014, envisioned ending the TB epidemic by 2035. Its interim 2025 targets were ambitious: a 75% reduction in TB deaths and a 50% drop in new infections compared to 2015.
However, WHO’s latest review reveals that by the end of 2025, TB mortality had decreased by only 29%, while incidence fell just 12.3%. These figures highlight persistent weaknesses in prevention, early detection, and treatment.
Nigeria’s Situation
Nigeria remains one of the countries hardest hit by TB. WHO estimates show 510,000 new TB cases in 2024, equating to 219 cases per 100,000 people. Deaths among HIV-negative individuals were put at 56,000, with an additional 5,800 deaths among people living with HIV. While TB-related deaths in Nigeria dropped by 63% between 2015 and 2024, incidence rates have not significantly declined, pointing to sustained community transmission.
Pulmonary TB made up 99% of reported cases, with 80% bacteriologically confirmed. Drug resistance continues to pose a serious challenge: 8,200 cases of multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB) were estimated in 2024, but only 3,090 patients received treatment.
Treatment Outcomes and Economic Burden
Despite these hurdles, Nigeria’s treatment success rates remain relatively strong. WHO data shows 94% success among new or relapse cases, 83% among TB patients living with HIV, and 76% among those with rifampicin-resistant TB. Yet the financial impact is severe. A national survey conducted in 2017 revealed that 71% of TB-affected households faced catastrophic costs, underscoring gaps in social protection and universal health coverage.
Funding Challenges
Funding shortfalls continue to undermine TB control efforts. In 2024, only $114 million was available for TB prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, with domestic sources contributing just 18%. Nigeria’s 2025 TB budget is projected at $405 million, but 73% remains unfunded. On the global scale, Nigeria is among the top eight countries driving the TB burden, accounting for 4.8% of all cases. Overall, 87% of TB worldwide is concentrated in just 30 countries.
WHO’s Warning
WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus cautioned that while progress has been made, it is not enough. He stated: “Declines in the global burden of TB, and improvements in testing, treatment, social protection and research are all welcome news after years of setbacks, but progress is not victory. The fact that TB continues to claim over a million lives each year, despite being preventable and curable, is simply unconscionable.”
The organisation further warned that stagnant funding and looming donor cuts from 2025 could result in up to 2 million additional deaths and 10 million new TB cases by 2035. WHO has urged governments to increase domestic investment, expand preventive treatment, strengthen health systems, and maintain political commitment to ensure the End TB targets are achieved by 2030.
